The Republican Primary, Take Two

The vice presidential sweepstakes begins.

Now that John McCain has the Republican presidential nomination wrapped up, speculation has begun over who his running mate will be. Not only is this a logical thing to discuss now, but it doubles as a good strategic move, since the longer the battle between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton continues, the more McCain fades into the background. Let's review some of the names that have been thrown out and their likeliness of being accepted.

Mitt Romney. Hands down, the most commonly mentioned name. Romney has some considerable pluses, not least of which is his considerable personal fortune that could be used for campaign finance. That's also a liability, however, as McCain has made a crusade out of campaign finance reform over the last few years. Romney's only other real asset is his name-recognition factor, which helps to explain why he has attracted so much attention lately. Voters, even when serious matters of policy are on the line, tend to vote for the candidate who they have heard of the most, which explains why the front-runners last summer were Rudy Giuliani and Hillary Clinton. Still, Romney's star power doesn't extend far past Idaho and Utah, two states that are already safe bets for the Republicans. Don't bank on Romney picking up the nod.

Mike Huckabee. Huckabee's appeal is similar to Romney's; people have heard of him because of his recent success in the primaries. He also has the advantage of appealing to evangelical voters, whose support McCain badly needs. He could also bring in Southern voters. Questions still arise concerning his conservative credentials, since he raised taxes while governor (legit) and didn't see through enough executions while in office (I still can't believe people actually think this). Moral of the story? Huckabee is more likely than Romney to make it on the ticket, but still far from a sure thing.

Condoleeza Rice. The Secretary of State only has one thing going for her, and that's her name recognition factor. Possibilities of breaking barriers aside (you're thinking about running a black or a woman? what about a BLACK WOMAN???), her service in the Bush administration is just too big a liability for her to be seriously considered as a vice president. Not a chance.

Colin Powell. Wishful thinking. He's publicly ended his political career, which is good, since his role in starting the war in Iraq (even if he was deceived by Bush and Rumsfeld) would effectively prevent him from ever being elected.

Dick Cheney. I've actually heard his name floated, although mostly in jest. Moving on.

Tim Pawlenty. Haven't heard of him? Pawlenty is the governor of Minnesota and looks like he'd be an excellent vice president. and might help to tilt his traditionally Democratic home state for the Republicans. Pawlenty has long been a McCain supporter and is a popular governor among his constituents. He's also young (just 48), which adds a nice counter-balance to McCain's age. There's a fair chance that he could get the nod.

Charlie Crist. This name might sound more familiar - he's the governor of Florida whose last-minute endorsement gave McCain the push he needed to take the state and the momentum heading into Super Tuesday. There's every reason to think that McCain might repay the favor by adding Crist to his ticket, especially since Florida is a major swing state. 27 electoral votes can make a big difference. Crist, too, is relatively young (52), though his gray hair could actually be the difference. (Pawlenty just looks younger than Crist. Like I keep saying, this election is all about image.)

Jon Huntsman, Jr. As the governor of Utah, you would Huntsman to be an ardent Romney supporter, but he's actually backed McCain from the early stages of the primary season. Like Pawlenty and Crist, he is young, charismatic, and energetic, all things McCain would love to have associated with his campaign. Unlike Pawlenty and Crist, however, he is not the governor of a swing state. A McCain-Huntsman ticket wouldn't be a big surprise, but I think it would be more likely to see him with a Cabinet position.

But even more likely to be accurate than my speculations, however, is the market on political futures - Intrade.com. Intrade allows you to buy and sell futures on politics. It's essentially like betting on who you think will end up as the nominee for either party. Mitt Romney leads the field in the vice presidential market, but Tim Pawlenty is close behind. When you factor out Romney's name recognition, Pawlenty looks like the likely candidate. Keep your eyes peeled.