Hasta la Vista, Fidel

What Castro's departure means for your weekend.

After nearly fifty years heading the Communist Party of Cuba, Fidel Castro announced in a letter today that he would no longer "aspire to nor accept the positions of President of the State Council and Commander in Chief." The news came as no surprise; Castro, 81, hadn't been seen in public since he went in for abdominal surgery in July 2006, and his brother Raúl has been acting in his place since that time. What was unexpected was Castro's voluntary decision to step down. Many world leaders in similar situations have only relinquished power on their death or at gunpoint. Castro's move, while not unprecedented, was certainly unexpected, and leaves open to debate the question of what will happen next in Cuba.

That doesn't mean, however, that you should start investing in Havana cigars. Castro's departure isn't likely to usher in a new age of democracy and tolerance in Cuba. Raúl was instrumental in suppressing revolution in Cuba, ordering executions and purges as recently as 1996. A Cuba led by Raúl Castro will likely have the same human rights record as the current one, if not slightly more oppressive. While the political climate isn't likely to thaw, however, the economic climate could change. Raúl has expressed concerns about the economic state of the country and wants to bring Cuba into the modern world. Cuba doesn't have the necessary resources to pull that off on its own, though. Where will he turn for aid?

Conventional wisdom would dictate that Raúl would look to the United States for that aid, though he wouldn't do so until after the November elections. He has spoken out against Bush several times since taking power in 2006, calling him "crazy" and "a common braggart." Yet he has been open to the idea of opening diplomatic relations with Washington in an effort to air out their grievances and come to an understanding. This would suggest that Raúl would be more receptive to an Obama government than any of the other major candidates. Obama has said that as president, he would be willing to open relations with nations considered as enemies to America, and Cuba certainly fits the bill. But the subject of Cuba is still a touchy one. Floridians aren't keen on the idea of easing restrictions on Cuba, since it opens the floodgates of refugees to their shores. Neither he nor Hillary Clinton are likely to openly support the idea of easing restrictions on Cuba at the cost of losing a swing state like Florida. Yet Obama is open to the idea of incremental reforms, possibly going further after discussions with Raúl Castro. If nothing else, the situation makes the already-interesting Democratic race even more tantalizing.

What of Fidel, though? His health is failing, but his mind remains alert and sharp. In his letter, he said that his only wish was to "fight as a soldier in the battle of ideas." He plans to continue to write under the title of "Reflections of Comrade Fidel" in Granma, the Cuban equivalent of Pravda. His influence will still be considerable. Castro has been the embodiment of the Cuban revolution for the last fifty years. He will officially only write pieces as opinion, but in Cuba, Castro's opinion is as good as policy. (Picture George Washington retiring but still writing regular dispatches about how he thought the government was doing.)

Essentially, the situation will change in Cuba, but it won't be a dramatic change. We may have to wait until both Castros are out of power before we see any changes with any lasting impact. Those Cuban cigars may be a while yet in coming.