I am sad to inform you that it's PAY-lin, not PAL-in. Or is it?
My wife and I were sitting in an undisclosed Arizona Motor Vehicles Department office, switching our licenses and registering our vehicle, when, of course, the dude at the window started talking politics. It makes sense--we registered to vote (except there was a problem with mine) and we were obviously Mormon and therefore conservatives, even though neither of us registered as a member of a party.
He said, "So, my brother-in-law is always watching Fox News--now everyone says Fox News is biased, but, you know, they're out there on their own, and you know, it's usually the lone wolf out there that's the one that's right--so, and I saw McCain's running mate, that Sarah ['pejlIn], and you know who she reminds me of?"
I was really hoping Elaine from Seinfeld. I really think she looks like Elaine.
"You know, Lynda Carter from the old Wonder Woman days? Yeah..."
"I always thought she looked like Elaine from Seinfeld."
"Hey, that's a good one, but I think she's way better-looking than Elaine from Seinfeld. So, you know, dress McCain up in his military uniform and ['pejlIn] up in the Wonder Woman outfit, and it's like Major [Steve Trevor] and Wonder Woman--"
"What a presidency!"
Yikes. a) Yikes. b) Cindy would transform into a thing that makes the Cloverfield monster look like Barney and eat Washington whole. And I wouldn't blame her.
Yes, my friends, this is the Palin Effect, other than torquing me royal 'cause I think it should be pronounced ['pælIn]. Comparisons to the girl next door, to Elaine, and to Wonder Woman. Life into people who were afraid to be Republicans. It's as if Bob Dole were to have been given Adam Sandler as his VP candidate instead of, wow I really have to look this up, Jack Kemp! Right! Kemp! All of a sudden, McCain's gone from boring old guy to boring old guy with cool running mate.
Anyhow, that's the Palin Effect--making Slate writers coach Biden in fear. Making the polls look neck-and-neck. Making "lipstick on a pig" comments inappropriate. Making DMV workers say really strange things. Is it "Star Power" or just a flash in the pan? The world will only know in November.
Showing posts with label sarah palin. Show all posts
Showing posts with label sarah palin. Show all posts
Thursday, September 11, 2008
Monday, September 8, 2008
The New Numbers
Why reports about national polling numbers can be safely ignored.
Big news! Polls taken after the Republican National Convention have John McCain up by as much as ten points! How can Barack Obama possibly recover from this? Is the election already wrapped up?
Hardly. Pundits tend to emphasize national polling numbers as a way of taking the pulse of the nation as a whole, but that's not the way presidents are elected. As we learned in high school civics class, the electoral college is responsible for choosing a new president, and those electors are chosen on a state-by-state basis. It's the individual state polls we need to look at, and those mask a significant advantage for the Barackstar.
Pollster.com is a great source for analyzing current numbers for any of the states. Using that as a guide, we see that Obama holds statistically significant leads (at least five points) in enough states to account for 243 electoral votes. That's huge, considering a candidate only needs 270 to win. John McCain, on the other hand, can only claim safe leads enough to pick up 179 votes. That leaves 116 votes in swing states, though it's telling that most of those states have been safely Republican in recent elections. Let's examine, shall we?
Traditionally Republican Swing States (90)
One last harrowing thought - if each set of swing states holds like we have laid them out here, then the electoral vote will be tied at 269, throwing the decision to the House of Representatives. Are you any happier than I am about the prospect of Nancy Pelosi choosing our nation's next president?
Big news! Polls taken after the Republican National Convention have John McCain up by as much as ten points! How can Barack Obama possibly recover from this? Is the election already wrapped up?
Hardly. Pundits tend to emphasize national polling numbers as a way of taking the pulse of the nation as a whole, but that's not the way presidents are elected. As we learned in high school civics class, the electoral college is responsible for choosing a new president, and those electors are chosen on a state-by-state basis. It's the individual state polls we need to look at, and those mask a significant advantage for the Barackstar.
Pollster.com is a great source for analyzing current numbers for any of the states. Using that as a guide, we see that Obama holds statistically significant leads (at least five points) in enough states to account for 243 electoral votes. That's huge, considering a candidate only needs 270 to win. John McCain, on the other hand, can only claim safe leads enough to pick up 179 votes. That leaves 116 votes in swing states, though it's telling that most of those states have been safely Republican in recent elections. Let's examine, shall we?
Traditionally Republican Swing States (90)
- Montana (3)
- Colorado (9)
- North Dakota (3)
- Virginia (13)
- North Carolina (15)
- Florida (27)
- Ohio (20)
- Nevada (5)
- Michigan (17)
- New Hampshire (4)
One last harrowing thought - if each set of swing states holds like we have laid them out here, then the electoral vote will be tied at 269, throwing the decision to the House of Representatives. Are you any happier than I am about the prospect of Nancy Pelosi choosing our nation's next president?
Thursday, September 4, 2008
Barrow
Another in an increasingly oddly named series of worbticles about Sarah Palin's ability or inability to lead. Today, it's about why the Democrats' rhetoric is misplaced, why Sarah's rhetoric is misplaced, and why I prefer to call her Sarah.
So, I've only read the text of the speech--I didn't listen to Sarah's inflection--but I'll tell you this: I don't think McCain's selection was off the cuff or anything of the sort. Gut feelings vs. safe choices aside, I think that this was thought out by the Mac Camp. Perhaps they even knew about Bristol, although I bet the seventeen-year-old didn't tell her mommy until the nomination was in the bag. That's how teenagers think.
On, on to the economy, stupids. Sarah talks about drilling Alaska. Drill Alaska, she says. That was the whole idea, but she took a long time on it. In fact, despite that CNN labels her speech an Obama-bash, the oil economy is her primary focus. Let's not deny it, this is an ingenious move if this is why Mac chose her (and come on, I'm pretty sure this is). Americans want to be rid of foreign oil dependency. I want to be rid of oil in general, but America's not ready for that, at least on the right.
So, that's a good plan, if you've got one. But, in the end, what this proves is that we can't just throw away Sarah 'cause her daughter's pregnant, and we can't throw away Mac if his plan is to Drill the Heck out of the Great White American North.
Also, she doesn't really look like a VP, but she does look like someone you'd chat with at the PTA or whatnot. Hockey mom image accurate or not, I can't call her Palin anymore, and will reserve that for the Python of the same name.
So, I've only read the text of the speech--I didn't listen to Sarah's inflection--but I'll tell you this: I don't think McCain's selection was off the cuff or anything of the sort. Gut feelings vs. safe choices aside, I think that this was thought out by the Mac Camp. Perhaps they even knew about Bristol, although I bet the seventeen-year-old didn't tell her mommy until the nomination was in the bag. That's how teenagers think.
On, on to the economy, stupids. Sarah talks about drilling Alaska. Drill Alaska, she says. That was the whole idea, but she took a long time on it. In fact, despite that CNN labels her speech an Obama-bash, the oil economy is her primary focus. Let's not deny it, this is an ingenious move if this is why Mac chose her (and come on, I'm pretty sure this is). Americans want to be rid of foreign oil dependency. I want to be rid of oil in general, but America's not ready for that, at least on the right.
So, that's a good plan, if you've got one. But, in the end, what this proves is that we can't just throw away Sarah 'cause her daughter's pregnant, and we can't throw away Mac if his plan is to Drill the Heck out of the Great White American North.
Also, she doesn't really look like a VP, but she does look like someone you'd chat with at the PTA or whatnot. Hockey mom image accurate or not, I can't call her Palin anymore, and will reserve that for the Python of the same name.
Tuesday, September 2, 2008
Nome
More about - surprise - the Sarah Palin circus.
Ben, I hope I didn't come across as overtly criticizing Palin. I'm certainly not implying that the Obama camp should start criticizing her. In fact, she's about the one thing about the McCain campaign that they can't touch. The issue is that her inexperience and associated liabilities are very different than Obama's.
Having children in difficult life circumstances doesn't disqualify her from the vice presidency. Almost the opposite, actually - blue-collar Americans can identify with the situation she's in. I'm just worried that with all the emphasis she's put on her family lately, at some point she will choose family over duty, which is something I'd prefer not to see from our vice president. (The VP does do some important things, actually. Dick Cheney has made the position far more important and powerful than the "warm bucket of spit" the office used to be.) Obama has two young children as well, and so one could conceivably turn the tables, except that Obama hasn't made as big a deal of his family as Palin has. It's not quite the same thing.
The issue of inexperience is worth looking at, too. Both have had relatively little time in major political offices, but I'd have to give the experience edge to Obama. While he's only had four years on the national stage, his four years have come in the Senate. He knows the people he will have to work with in Congress should he become the president. He's had a chance to gain some foreign policy experience. While Palin has had experience actually governing in her two years over Alaska, one has to remember that it's Alaska. If Alaska were a metro area, it would be slightly larger than Knoxville, but slightly smaller than Akron. It's governing experience, yes, but on a far smaller stage than the national one. And while it's true that she'll only be the vice president, in McCain's case it's a real worry that she could have to take over for him, possibly even in the first term. (We all wish John McCain a long and healthy life, but you have to consider the possibilities.) Her inexperience is far more pronounced than Obama's.
Let's also apply the final smell test. Say each of these to yourself: "President Obama." "President Palin."
The real issue, though, is that this pick isn't so much about Palin's weaknesses and flaws as McCain's. This is the first big decision he's had to make as the Republican nominee, and there are some real worries about it. It's becoming increasingly clear that he made it very quickly, possibly in as little as two days. Sound a little like the Decider to anyone else? For a campaign that has been trying as hard as possible to convince people that a McCain term would not be a third term for Bush, the nominee has been more than a little off-message.
Ben, I hope I didn't come across as overtly criticizing Palin. I'm certainly not implying that the Obama camp should start criticizing her. In fact, she's about the one thing about the McCain campaign that they can't touch. The issue is that her inexperience and associated liabilities are very different than Obama's.
Having children in difficult life circumstances doesn't disqualify her from the vice presidency. Almost the opposite, actually - blue-collar Americans can identify with the situation she's in. I'm just worried that with all the emphasis she's put on her family lately, at some point she will choose family over duty, which is something I'd prefer not to see from our vice president. (The VP does do some important things, actually. Dick Cheney has made the position far more important and powerful than the "warm bucket of spit" the office used to be.) Obama has two young children as well, and so one could conceivably turn the tables, except that Obama hasn't made as big a deal of his family as Palin has. It's not quite the same thing.
The issue of inexperience is worth looking at, too. Both have had relatively little time in major political offices, but I'd have to give the experience edge to Obama. While he's only had four years on the national stage, his four years have come in the Senate. He knows the people he will have to work with in Congress should he become the president. He's had a chance to gain some foreign policy experience. While Palin has had experience actually governing in her two years over Alaska, one has to remember that it's Alaska. If Alaska were a metro area, it would be slightly larger than Knoxville, but slightly smaller than Akron. It's governing experience, yes, but on a far smaller stage than the national one. And while it's true that she'll only be the vice president, in McCain's case it's a real worry that she could have to take over for him, possibly even in the first term. (We all wish John McCain a long and healthy life, but you have to consider the possibilities.) Her inexperience is far more pronounced than Obama's.
Let's also apply the final smell test. Say each of these to yourself: "President Obama." "President Palin."
The real issue, though, is that this pick isn't so much about Palin's weaknesses and flaws as McCain's. This is the first big decision he's had to make as the Republican nominee, and there are some real worries about it. It's becoming increasingly clear that he made it very quickly, possibly in as little as two days. Sound a little like the Decider to anyone else? For a campaign that has been trying as hard as possible to convince people that a McCain term would not be a third term for Bush, the nominee has been more than a little off-message.
Anchorage
In defense of hockey mom vice presidents.
Note: Ben always has to start with "Now, I'm not really a Republican, but..."
I think my counterpart may have been a little too hard on Sarah Palin.
A couple of points: Sarah and Todd gave a great little speech about little Bristol's huge tiny mistake, which showed a) they're not afraid of this becoming public, and they were wise enough to bring the media to their backyard instead of getting invaded and b) they're nice folk whose daughters actually marry their baby daddies.
The joy of Palin for the GOP is that, like Optimistic said, they won't hit her hard over Bristolgate cause it alienates the single mother demographic. Also, if they want to avoid the "elitist" image O's trying so hard to shake, they won't say a thing. Or about her other kids, especially the one with Down's. Seriously, what are going to say? "Why did you birth a retard?" That's real nice.
Personally, I like Palin more than Biden, even though my conscience constrains me not to vote for Mac. Why? I like the hockey mom thing. I like that she's got kids at home. I like that she's like the rest of the flipping country, trying to make some sense out of their daughter getting pregnant at 17.
What does a Vice President do anyway? If Quayle can do it, anyone can.
Note: Ben always has to start with "Now, I'm not really a Republican, but..."
I think my counterpart may have been a little too hard on Sarah Palin.
A couple of points: Sarah and Todd gave a great little speech about little Bristol's huge tiny mistake, which showed a) they're not afraid of this becoming public, and they were wise enough to bring the media to their backyard instead of getting invaded and b) they're nice folk whose daughters actually marry their baby daddies.
The joy of Palin for the GOP is that, like Optimistic said, they won't hit her hard over Bristolgate cause it alienates the single mother demographic. Also, if they want to avoid the "elitist" image O's trying so hard to shake, they won't say a thing. Or about her other kids, especially the one with Down's. Seriously, what are going to say? "Why did you birth a retard?" That's real nice.
Personally, I like Palin more than Biden, even though my conscience constrains me not to vote for Mac. Why? I like the hockey mom thing. I like that she's got kids at home. I like that she's like the rest of the flipping country, trying to make some sense out of their daughter getting pregnant at 17.
What does a Vice President do anyway? If Quayle can do it, anyone can.
Monday, September 1, 2008
Juneau
Even more drama to the Sarah Palin pick.
As if the Sarah Palin pick wasn't already surprising enough, there's another fun little tidbit to think about now - Palin's 17-year old daughter Bristol was revealed today to be teen pregnant. (I really wish I could claim the title of this post as my own, but it's borrowed from Slate's XX Factor blog.) This is just the latest development in the Palin candidacy that is fast becoming a five-ring circus. Who is this woman? Is she even qualified to take office? What's the deal with the state trooper she fired who turned out to be her brother-in-law? What about her son she chose to deliver, even though he has Down syndrome?
This makes a sticky situation for the Democrats, who would love to tear this woman apart, yet are afraid to do so and risk alienating their already fragile base of women voters. Even still, this bears examination under a nonpartisan microscope. Is this someone we really want to be in the White House, even as a vice president? Consider the following things that could demand her attention in a meeting:
The whole saga is starting to remind me of Tom Eagleton in 1972, who accepted the VP spot under George McGovern only to retract it 18 days later after reports surfaced that he had undergone electroshock therapy for physical and nervous exhaustion. Eagleton ended up on a ticket because he was only cursorily vetted, something that campaigns go to great pains to avoid today. One wonders if McCain's campaign may have made the same mistake. Palin was probably chosen to draw new attention to the McCain campaign, but this may have been more than they bargained for.
As if the Sarah Palin pick wasn't already surprising enough, there's another fun little tidbit to think about now - Palin's 17-year old daughter Bristol was revealed today to be teen pregnant. (I really wish I could claim the title of this post as my own, but it's borrowed from Slate's XX Factor blog.) This is just the latest development in the Palin candidacy that is fast becoming a five-ring circus. Who is this woman? Is she even qualified to take office? What's the deal with the state trooper she fired who turned out to be her brother-in-law? What about her son she chose to deliver, even though he has Down syndrome?
This makes a sticky situation for the Democrats, who would love to tear this woman apart, yet are afraid to do so and risk alienating their already fragile base of women voters. Even still, this bears examination under a nonpartisan microscope. Is this someone we really want to be in the White House, even as a vice president? Consider the following things that could demand her attention in a meeting:
- A young baby with Down syndrome.
- News from her son in Iraq.
- A teenage daughter with a child of her own and a teenage husband.
- Her other two children, aged fourteen and seven.
The whole saga is starting to remind me of Tom Eagleton in 1972, who accepted the VP spot under George McGovern only to retract it 18 days later after reports surfaced that he had undergone electroshock therapy for physical and nervous exhaustion. Eagleton ended up on a ticket because he was only cursorily vetted, something that campaigns go to great pains to avoid today. One wonders if McCain's campaign may have made the same mistake. Palin was probably chosen to draw new attention to the McCain campaign, but this may have been more than they bargained for.
Friday, August 29, 2008
Big, big surprise
John McCain ensures that all eyes are on him following Barack Obama's big speech.
John McCain was set to announce his running mate today, and by all accounts, it was going to be a fairly traditional affair. He was likely to pick someone like Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty or Mitt Romney, whose names had been floating around for months. Then, this morning, everything was turned on its head.
Pawlenty announced that he would not be in Dayton this morning, the site of McCain's scheduled rally. When asked if that meant he was not going to be the pick, he told reporters that they could "draw [their] own conclusion." Romney also announced that he would not be in Dayton, leaving pundits without any names to go on.
And then, the bomb dropped - Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin. Who? Palin is actually a very savvy choice. She ousted the old guard in staunchly conservative Alaska. She's young - at age 44, she balances the 72-years old today McCain. And - get this - she's a woman. If there was any doubt before that McCain is doing all that he can to court disaffected Hillary supporters, there isn't now. After all the tough talk about McCain not actually being much of a maverick during the DNC, he pulls off a move out of nowhere that removes all doubt. Very, very impressive move.
John McCain was set to announce his running mate today, and by all accounts, it was going to be a fairly traditional affair. He was likely to pick someone like Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty or Mitt Romney, whose names had been floating around for months. Then, this morning, everything was turned on its head.
Pawlenty announced that he would not be in Dayton this morning, the site of McCain's scheduled rally. When asked if that meant he was not going to be the pick, he told reporters that they could "draw [their] own conclusion." Romney also announced that he would not be in Dayton, leaving pundits without any names to go on.
And then, the bomb dropped - Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin. Who? Palin is actually a very savvy choice. She ousted the old guard in staunchly conservative Alaska. She's young - at age 44, she balances the 72-years old today McCain. And - get this - she's a woman. If there was any doubt before that McCain is doing all that he can to court disaffected Hillary supporters, there isn't now. After all the tough talk about McCain not actually being much of a maverick during the DNC, he pulls off a move out of nowhere that removes all doubt. Very, very impressive move.
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